BioE3, Mission-Oriented Innovation Systems and Economy–Environment–Employment Outcomes: An Ex-Ante Assessment of Bihar's Sustainable Structural Transformation, 2025–2050
Keywords:
Bioeconomy, BioE3 Policy, Mission-Oriented Innovation Systems, Sustainable Structural Transformation, Bihar, Simulation AnalysisAbstract
This study examines the transformative potential of India’s emerging bioeconomy policy architecture, with particular emphasis on the BioE3 paradigm, for achieving integrated Economy–Environment–Employment (E3) outcomes in Bihar. Adopting a mission-oriented innovation systems (MOIS) framework combined with a sustainable structural transformation (SST) approach, the analysis develops a forward-looking simulation model for the period 2025–2050. The empirical strategy integrates Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based multipliers, dynamic input–output modelling, and sector-specific projections, calibrated using recent state-level macroeconomic data at constant prices.
The results indicate that a mission-driven bioeconomy transition can significantly alter Bihar’s development trajectory. Under the Accelerated Bioeconomy Transformation (ABT) scenario, Gross State Value Added (GSVA) grows to approximately ₹34–35 lakh crore by 2050, compared to ₹23–24 lakh crore under the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, reflecting an annual growth premium of 2.3–3.1 percentage points. Structural shifts are evident in the rising contribution of bio-based sectors to 18–22% of GSVA, alongside a reconfiguration toward a more balanced sectoral composition.
Employment outcomes are substantial, with an estimated 8–11 million additional jobs generated by 2050, driven by agro-industrial expansion, decentralized bioenergy systems, and service-sector spillovers. The transition also improves employment quality through increased formalization, skill intensity, and wage gains. Environmentally, the model projects a 28–35% reduction in carbon intensity relative to BAU, supported by bioenergy substitution, resource efficiency, and circular biomass utilization.
The findings underscore that such outcomes are contingent upon robust mission-oriented innovation systems, characterized by coordinated policy frameworks, strengthened R&D ecosystems, and cluster-based industrial development. The study concludes that translating macro-level bioeconomy ambitions into inclusive regional development requires context-specific strategies, institutional coherence, and sustained investment, positioning the bioeconomy as a viable pathway for sustainable and inclusive structural transformation in Bihar.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Jitendra Kumar Sinha (Author)
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