The Impact of Employment Quality on the Settlement Intention of Young Migrants in China

Abstract

For China, enhancing the settlement intentions of the young migrants is critical for advancing new-type urbanization and sustaining urban vitality in destination cities. Based on data from the 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) and drawing upon the OECD framework for employment quality, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) across four dimensions: earnings, job security, job stability, and job intensity. We employ a Linear Probability Model (LPM) to empirically examine the impact of employment quality on the settlement intentions of young migrants aged 20–45.The baseline results indicate that improvements in employment quality significantly bolster settlement intentions. To address potential endogeneity, we utilize an instrumental variable (IV) approach—constructed from the mean values of other cities within the same province—and find that the results remain robust. Dimensional decomposition reveals that while employment income exerts the strongest influence, employment stability and security follow closely; conversely, work intensity serves as a relatively minor constraint. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that the settlement intentions of low-educated groups are primarily driven by income. In contrast, highly educated migrants (junior college and above) exhibit a clear preference for the "quality" of work, showing higher sensitivity to job stability and work intensity. Notably, young migrants in Tier-1 cities place a disproportionately higher value on work intensity when deciding whether to settle permanently.